He's retiring, making him immune to GOP pressure. He recently said he was totally "undecided."
Boccieri has turned out to be a lesser priority for the NRCC than fellow Ohio freshmen Kilroy and Driehaus. He has recently sounded open to supporting the bill.
He's retiring, which puts him right at the top of the Democrats' priority list since the GOP can't pressure him with electoral reasons. He is a Blue Dog. A very important detail: He voted for the bill in the Energy & Commerce Committee before opposing it on the floor, which certainly suggests he'd be open to voting for it now.
Faces a competitive race, though he represents one of the bluest districts among the 39 who voted 'no' in the fall.
Not for now
Murphy looks safer than he did this fall
That leaves us with 18 Democrats whose support for a final bill is plausible, albeit still tough to envision. It will at the least require some very heavy pushing for Pelosi to convince any of these:
Despite a few hints of openness to supporting a bill, he has sounded very hostile to health-care reform and the abortion issue should seal his "no." He's a Blue Dog.
Adler has done his best to position himself as a centrist over the past few months and he is facing a tricky race. Yet, he is less vulnerable than many others on this list and he represents a district that clearly voted for Obama. He should be right at the top of Pelosi's target list.
At this point, this Blue Dog has more to worry about in the Dem primary than in the general election. He's a Blue Dog.
Boucher looks far more vulnerable now than he did in the fall, which will complicate Pelosi's outreach.
The filing deadline has passed in Kentucky, and while the race could heat up Chandler doesn't have to worry about facing a top-tier Republican. Will this encourage him to vote "yes"? He did support cap-and-trade. He's a Blue Dog.
He's a Blue Dog, and he is facing his first tough re-election race in some time.
She has emerged as a fairly centrist Democrat, so I'd be somewhat surprised if she switches; but her district is not as red as others on this list.
If Pelosi convinces him that he will lose anyway, perhaps?
She's a Blue Dog. The Democratic leadership let her be the main sponsor of the bill repealing the anti-trust exemption; might she repay them by voting "yes"?
He is fundraising off his initial vote for health-care, but he is one of the most obvious votes for the leadership to target.
Would be surprised if he votes "yes," but in recent comments he was less hostile than other Blue Dogs. He's a Blue Dog.
The filing deadline passed in North Carolina, and the GOP failed to recruit a credible challenger despite the district's red lean. Despite McIntyre's conservatism, that alone makes him a target to leadership pressure. He's a Blue Dog.
He's a Blue Dog, a freshman and he faces a tough race in November - a tough combination for Pelosi. But he also represents one of the few Obama districts on this list, so he is sure to face more pressure than others.
Committee chairman. He's a Blue Dog.
He's a Blue Dog. The abortion issue could prevent Pelosi from convincing him.
His retirement is prompting talk he might be more wiling to help his party, though he looks likely to do so than Baird and Gordon. He's a Blue Dog.