Phone numbers are after Names in Red.
Targeted House Members by State in Red
Name
District
Competitive race?
Obama-McCain
Junior?
Comment
Brian Baird
WA-03
Retiring
52-46
No
He's retiring, making him immune to GOP pressure. He recently said he was totally "undecided."
John Boccieri
OH-16
Yes
48-50
Freshman
Boccieri has turned out to be a lesser priority for the NRCC than fellow Ohio freshmen Kilroy and Driehaus. He has recently sounded open to supporting the bill.
Bart Gordon
TN-06
Retiring
37-62
Sophomore
He's retiring, which puts him right at the top of the Democrats' priority list since the GOP can't pressure him with electoral reasons. He is a Blue Dog. A very important detail: He voted for the bill in the Energy & Commerce Committee before opposing it on the floor, which certainly suggests he'd be open to voting for it now.
Larry Kissell
NC-08
Yes
53-47
freshman
Faces a competitive race, though he represents one of the bluest districts among the 39 who voted 'no' in the fall.
Scott Murphy
NY-23
Not for now
51-48
freshman
Murphy looks safer than he did this fall
That leaves us with 18 Democrats whose support for a final bill is plausible, albeit still tough to envision. It will at the least require some very heavy pushing for Pelosi to convince any of these:
Jason Altmire
PA-04
Yes
44-55
Sophomore
Despite a few hints of openness to supporting a bill, he has sounded very hostile to health-care reform and the abortion issue should seal his "no." He's a Blue Dog.
John Adler
NJ-03
Yes
52-47
Freshman
Adler has done his best to position himself as a centrist over the past few months and he is facing a tricky race. Yet, he is less vulnerable than many others on this list and he represents a district that clearly voted for Obama. He should be right at the top of Pelosi's target list.
John Barrow
GA-12
No
54-45
No
Allen Boyd
FL-02
In primary
45-54
No
At this point, this Blue Dog has more to worry about in the Dem primary than in the general election. He's a Blue Dog.
Rick Boucher
VA-09
Yes
40-59
No
Boucher looks far more vulnerable now than he did in the fall, which will complicate Pelosi's outreach.
Ben Chandler
KY-06
Probably not
43-55
No
The filing deadline has passed in Kentucky, and while the race could heat up Chandler doesn't have to worry about facing a top-tier Republican. Will this encourage him to vote "yes"? He did support cap-and-trade. He's a Blue Dog.
Tim Holden
PA-17
Yes
48-51
No
He's a Blue Dog, and he is facing his first tough re-election race in some time.
Suzanne Kosmas
FL-24
Yes
49-51
freshman
She has emerged as a fairly centrist Democrat, so I'd be somewhat surprised if she switches; but her district is not as red as others on this list.
Frank Kratovil
MD-01
Yes
40-58
freshman
If Pelosi convinces him that he will lose anyway, perhaps?
Betsy Markey
CO-04
Yes
49-50
freshman
She's a Blue Dog. The Democratic leadership let her be the main sponsor of the bill repealing the anti-trust exemption; might she repay them by voting "yes"?
Eric Massa
NY-29
Probably
48-51
freshman
He is fundraising off his initial vote for health-care, but he is one of the most obvious votes for the leadership to target.
Jim Matheson
UT-02
Probably not
39-57
No
Would be surprised if he votes "yes," but in recent comments he was less hostile than other Blue Dogs. He's a Blue Dog.
Michael McMahon
NY-03
Perhaps
49-51
freshman
Mike McIntyre
NC-07
No
47-52
No
The filing deadline passed in North Carolina, and the GOP failed to recruit a credible challenger despite the district's red lean. Despite McIntyre's conservatism, that alone makes him a target to leadership pressure. He's a Blue Dog.
Glenn Nye
VA-02
Yes
51-49
freshman
He's a Blue Dog, a freshman and he faces a tough race in November - a tough combination for Pelosi. But he also represents one of the few Obama districts on this list, so he is sure to face more pressure than others.
Colin Peterson
MN-07
Probably not
47-50
No
Committee chairman. He's a Blue Dog.
Ike Skelton
MO-04
Yes
38-61
No
He's a Blue Dog. The abortion issue could prevent Pelosi from convincing him.
John Tanner
TN-08
Retiring
43-56
No
His retirement is prompting talk he might be more wiling to help his party, though he looks likely to do so than Baird and Gordon. He's a Blue Dog.
District
Competitive race?
Obama-McCain
Junior?
Comment
Brian Baird
WA-03
Retiring
52-46
No
He's retiring, making him immune to GOP pressure. He recently said he was totally "undecided."
John Boccieri
OH-16
Yes
48-50
Freshman
Boccieri has turned out to be a lesser priority for the NRCC than fellow Ohio freshmen Kilroy and Driehaus. He has recently sounded open to supporting the bill.
Bart Gordon
TN-06
Retiring
37-62
Sophomore
He's retiring, which puts him right at the top of the Democrats' priority list since the GOP can't pressure him with electoral reasons. He is a Blue Dog. A very important detail: He voted for the bill in the Energy & Commerce Committee before opposing it on the floor, which certainly suggests he'd be open to voting for it now.
Larry Kissell
NC-08
Yes
53-47
freshman
Faces a competitive race, though he represents one of the bluest districts among the 39 who voted 'no' in the fall.
Scott Murphy
NY-23
Not for now
51-48
freshman
Murphy looks safer than he did this fall
That leaves us with 18 Democrats whose support for a final bill is plausible, albeit still tough to envision. It will at the least require some very heavy pushing for Pelosi to convince any of these:
Jason Altmire
PA-04
Yes
44-55
Sophomore
Despite a few hints of openness to supporting a bill, he has sounded very hostile to health-care reform and the abortion issue should seal his "no." He's a Blue Dog.
John Adler
NJ-03
Yes
52-47
Freshman
Adler has done his best to position himself as a centrist over the past few months and he is facing a tricky race. Yet, he is less vulnerable than many others on this list and he represents a district that clearly voted for Obama. He should be right at the top of Pelosi's target list.
John Barrow
GA-12
No
54-45
No
Allen Boyd
FL-02
In primary
45-54
No
At this point, this Blue Dog has more to worry about in the Dem primary than in the general election. He's a Blue Dog.
Rick Boucher
VA-09
Yes
40-59
No
Boucher looks far more vulnerable now than he did in the fall, which will complicate Pelosi's outreach.
Ben Chandler
KY-06
Probably not
43-55
No
The filing deadline has passed in Kentucky, and while the race could heat up Chandler doesn't have to worry about facing a top-tier Republican. Will this encourage him to vote "yes"? He did support cap-and-trade. He's a Blue Dog.
Tim Holden
PA-17
Yes
48-51
No
He's a Blue Dog, and he is facing his first tough re-election race in some time.
Suzanne Kosmas
FL-24
Yes
49-51
freshman
She has emerged as a fairly centrist Democrat, so I'd be somewhat surprised if she switches; but her district is not as red as others on this list.
Frank Kratovil
MD-01
Yes
40-58
freshman
If Pelosi convinces him that he will lose anyway, perhaps?
Betsy Markey
CO-04
Yes
49-50
freshman
She's a Blue Dog. The Democratic leadership let her be the main sponsor of the bill repealing the anti-trust exemption; might she repay them by voting "yes"?
Eric Massa
NY-29
Probably
48-51
freshman
He is fundraising off his initial vote for health-care, but he is one of the most obvious votes for the leadership to target.
Jim Matheson
UT-02
Probably not
39-57
No
Would be surprised if he votes "yes," but in recent comments he was less hostile than other Blue Dogs. He's a Blue Dog.
Michael McMahon
NY-03
Perhaps
49-51
freshman
Mike McIntyre
NC-07
No
47-52
No
The filing deadline passed in North Carolina, and the GOP failed to recruit a credible challenger despite the district's red lean. Despite McIntyre's conservatism, that alone makes him a target to leadership pressure. He's a Blue Dog.
Glenn Nye
VA-02
Yes
51-49
freshman
He's a Blue Dog, a freshman and he faces a tough race in November - a tough combination for Pelosi. But he also represents one of the few Obama districts on this list, so he is sure to face more pressure than others.
Colin Peterson
MN-07
Probably not
47-50
No
Committee chairman. He's a Blue Dog.
Ike Skelton
MO-04
Yes
38-61
No
He's a Blue Dog. The abortion issue could prevent Pelosi from convincing him.
John Tanner
TN-08
Retiring
43-56
No
His retirement is prompting talk he might be more wiling to help his party, though he looks likely to do so than Baird and Gordon. He's a Blue Dog.
Targeted House of Representative Members